Public First

Creating tangible policy change is really hard so I'm incredibly proud of the work of the Commission Into Countering Online Conspiracies In Schools which over the last week has seen two key DfE publications change to reflect the importance of tackling misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy belief amongst young people. 1️⃣ Keeping Children Safe in Education 2025 has been updated to clarify misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy theories are safeguarding harms: https://lnkd.in/de3v56kP 2️⃣ RSE and Health Education Statutory Guidance has been published which explicitly includes 'understanding the prevalence of misinformation and disinformation online, including conspiracy theories.' https://lnkd.in/da8mqDbf The Commission's findings from our first report were clear - that learning about misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy beliefs needs to be embedded across the curriculum, and that we must support teachers to recognise and tackle the sharp end of conspiracy belief as a safeguarding concern. A huge thanks to all our Commissioners, particularly Hamid Patel, Melanie Renowden, Smita Jamdar, Dame Alison Peacock DL, DLitt and our Advisory Board members Glenn Bezalel and Jeremy Hayward who have offered such expertise and advice. As always, thanks to Amy Braier and the Pears Foundation who have funded the Commission's work and my brilliant Public First colleagues, particularly Katie Carr, Jonathan Simons and Ed Dorrell who have been working to help us make change to support teachers, schools and ultimately young people to tackle the tide of misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy content they are exposed to online.

We are pleased to announce that Paul Johnson, former Director of the Institute For Fiscal Studies has joined SHGH as a senior adviser. Paul is widely regarded as one of the UK’s leading public economists. Over the past decade, he has played a central role in shaping the national debate on tax, public spending and fiscal policy. His experience spans HM Treasury, the Department for Education, the Financial Services Authority and more than a decade at the helm of the IFS. At SHGH, Paul will contribute to our macroeconomic work, provide board-level strategic advice, and support clients in navigating an increasingly complex fiscal and political environment. His appointment reflects our continued commitment to offering clients independent, expert insight at a time of national and global uncertainty.

I spoke to NPR about the British water industry ahead of the coming Cunliffe Review. https://lnkd.in/e7BCRfd5

One year on from the election, Ed Dorrell and I sat down with Labour voters in two swing seats to find out what they’ve made of the Government’s progress. Interestingly, such was their frustration at a lack action, and dismay at the current leaders to pick from, it was Boris Johnson who they harked back to… full story in The Times today. https://lnkd.in/e6Xaj_WB

Has Keir Starmer's honeymoon year really been so bad? Damayanti Chatterjee and I crunch the economic data, as well as measures of crime, migration and NHS performance. A combined "honeymoon index" suggests Starmer has actually had the second-best first year after Tony Blair. What's remarkable then, is just how unpopular Sir Keir is despite this. https://lnkd.in/eHPtJXDk

Over the last nine months, a large team at Public First has travelled across 11 countries, run surveys with over 16,000 adults and produced dozens of new models - all to explore the potential impact AI could create in the Asia-Pacific region. We're starting now to publish the first results - for the region as a whole, as well as Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan - and much more to come soon. You can find the full reports at https://lnkd.in/eJ2Rym_c

It's getting hotter - the country struggles to function properly at these temperatures, and it's not well prepared for more hot summers. That's what the majority of the public says (74%, 69% and 74% respectively) about the UK's most recent heatwaves. Climate-related disruption is yet another failure that the British public has to endure alongside wider infrastructure and public services shortfalls. Public First runs a monthly poll asking the public key tracking questions as well as timely snapshot ones. Last week (20th-27th June), we asked the British public about their experiences of the recent hot weather. Here's what we found: 🥵 Heatwaves affect our ability to perform day-to-day tasks 🥵 Most commonly, people said that the warmer weather makes it harder to sleep (66%) and uncomfortable to be indoors (57%). It can also affect mood, making people irritable (42%), lose focus (41%) and their appetite (32%), and be less productive at work or while studying (33%). There are also health impacts, with over a third of the public (35%) experiencing minor issues like headaches and dehydration, and around one in ten (8%) suffering from more serious health issues like heatstroke. Additionally heatwaves prevent us from managing our health - 37% said the heat stopped them from exercising or doing physical activity. ⚠️ The UK struggles to cope in heatwaves ⚠️ Three-quarters of the public (and of Reform voters) say that the UK is not well prepared for very hot summers - the same proportion also says that very hot weather is becoming more common in the UK. Around two-thirds of people say that the same high temperatures feel worse in the UK than they do abroad (64%). Over half (57%) say that hot weather causes too much disruption in the UK, with 12% reporting that their places of work or study were disrupted or closed, and 15% experiencing disruptions to their commute. This is not just a symptom of heat though, it points to more wider public concerns that the UK's infrastructure is not fit for the needs of modern Britain (63%). Unsurprisingly then, 55% say that the government should be doing more to help people cope with heatwaves. Interested in which constituencies are most at risk of extreme heat? Last year, Public First modelled Extreme Weather maps of local areas for AXA UK - read more here https://lnkd.in/eU45pqJH

We polled 2,000 Americans on what they think about the recent battle between Trump and the courts, and the findings were featured in the Times by their new Washington Editor Katy Balls yesterday. To make a long story short, Americans on both sides of the aisle think the courts - particularly the Supreme Court - have too much power. And they don't necessarily agree with how judges are using that power - for example, Americans tend to agree that judges should NOT block deportations of non-US citizens suspected of committing a crime. That being said, the administration should be careful about taking their attacks on the judiciary too far - 1 in 3 of Trump's own voters think he has taken his criticism of the courts too far. That's partly explained by the fact that there are still high levels of trust in the judiciary across both parties and Americans value our system of checks and balances - both Harris and Trump votes disagree with the idea that the president should be able to ignore rulings from the Supreme Court that go against their campaign pledges. If you want to make sense of what Americans think, we can help. https://lnkd.in/eEapsfRS Rachel Wolf Abigail Morris Seb Wride

Thank you to all who joined us last night for SHGH’s inaugural summer party. What a wonderful sunny evening tucked away in the Victoria and Albert Museum John Madejski Garden. Hosting our clients, supporters and stakeholders from across Public First Stonehaven and Robertsbridge to celebrate the year so far - and what’s still to come - was our enormous pleasure. We hope you enjoyed it as much as we did!

Thrilled to launch our latest report exploring the economic and social impact of Uber in Chicago. Drawing on consumer and driver surveys, original economic analysis, and immersive fieldwork, our research paints a detailed picture of how Uber affects the lives of riders, drivers, and communities across the city. Key findings include: • Every 1 million Uber trips generates $27 million in economic value for Chicago • Uber has contributed $102+ million in direct tax revenue to the City of Chicago • 60% of riders used Uber in the last year for an essential journey • Riders have saved an estimated 11.9 million hours annually The qual team, working closely with the brilliant Amy Price and supported by internal Uber data, conducted immersive research focusing on transit deserts – areas more than a half-mile from a rail stop or quarter mile from a bus service - in South Side Chicago. By spending longer time periods on the ground here, we reached people who we would never otherwise be able to hear from through more traditional methods. Our findings highlighted the importance of Uber to residents across the city, and provided powerful case studies which are well worth a read. We also held over a dozen interviews (under strict anonymity) with Uber drivers. These conversations offered unparalleled insight into their experiences and motivations and helped demonstrate just how important Uber is to both the City of Chicago and its employees. You can read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/euTrart3